One Bad Decision - A Lifetime of Consequences

What is the potential cost of a bad decision?

We underestimate the potential cost of poor judgement. In fact, we don't even have effective mechanisms for developing judgement and critical thinking - not in schools, universities or even in corporate professional or leadership development.

Because we don't know how.

But let's look at some examples of the consequences of bad decisions:

20 years in prison - Can Gürkan, CEO of Soma Coal Enterprises in Turkey - 301 miners killed in an underground fire in 2014 because of pushing production increases without adequate ventilation and fire-safety systems, despite known risks. for “conscious negligence.”

16 years in prison. - Francesco Schettino, Captain, Costa Concordia cruise ship - 32 people killed in 2012 shipwreck because took the cruise ship close to Giglio Island, reportedly as a customary “salute” intended to entertain passengers and people ashore. He delayed evacuation and left the vessel before passengers were safe.

15 years in prison - Park Soon-kwan, CEO, Aricell - 23 workers killed in a factory fire in 2024. Investigators found inadequate training, weak safety procedures and unresolved product defects as the company rushed to meet its supply commitment. .

12 years in prison - Giovanni Castellucci, CEO of Autostrade per l’Italia - 43 people kiloled in a 2018 bridge collapse. The court concluded that longstanding defects and warning signs had been neglected.

Of special mention, and these two get into fraud and corruption (which are also decisions)

EXECUTED: Lai Xiaomin, China Huarong Asset Management - Accepted approximately ¥1.79 billion in bribes and committed embezzlement while chairing the state-controlled financial company.

LIFE IMPRISONMENT - Hui Ka Yan, China Evergrande Group - Concealed liabilities, inflated financial results, misused corporate funds and committed bribery as Evergrande accumulated more than US$300 billion in liabilities.

Honorable mentions include:

• Bernard Madoff, Investment Securities - 150 year prison sentence

• Allen Stanford, Stanford International Bank - 100 year prison sentence

• Elizabeth Holmes, Theranos - 11 years in prison and $452 Million in restitution

Of course there are thousands of other examples of poor decision making leading to severe consequences, not just in corporations, but also in government.

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A leadership decision that begins in the mind, and gets approved in the boardroom, can end with the collapse of a company, financial devastation for thousands of stakeholders and, in the most extreme cases, the loss of many lives.

Of course, many poor decisions don't start with any intention to cause a disaster. They began with an apparently reasonable objective - meet the deadline, increase shareholder value, increase productivity, control costs, protect revenue or create a memorable experience.

The catastrophe emerges when the decision-makers discount warnings, normalize risk and continue after the situation had changed.

It happens in a culture of group-think, when executives and advisors are too afraid of the consequences of challenging decisions. They fail to speak up, intervene or disagree, and in some cases, become complicit in creating or allowing the consequences.

Of course, LLM (AI) "encouragement" of poor decisions and ideas, also referred to as "AI sycophancy", can compound the problem and convince decision makers to move in a certain direction without challenging their assumptions or warning of negative consequences.

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So how do we develop judgement and critical thinking to avoid poor decisions?

Decision Rehearsal™ helps prevent catastrophic consequences by allowing leaders to experience a high-stakes decision before they face it in reality.

Immersive scenarios place participants under realistic pressure, expose them to incomplete information, competing priorities and emotional triggers, and require them to confront the first- and second-order consequences of their choices.

By rehearsing how they will recognize warning signs, challenge assumptions, listen to dissent and regulate their reactions, leaders build the judgement and mental readiness to pause when others might press ahead. It cannot eliminate every failure, but it can prevent an ordinary commercial objective from escalating into an irreversible human, financial or reputational disaster.

Is your executive team equipped, trained in judgement and critical thinking? Try our free Executive Decision Readiness Scorecard

Russell Cullingworth, CEO, ProDio - creator of Decision Rehearsal™